Weekly Trading Review (week 5)

Been busy this week, can't watch the market, so I miss a couple of good trade :(

Let's review Aud/Usd which again made a new high 1.0774 and no sign of weakening, still goin strong, I guess 1.1000 is on the way.

AUD/USD 4 Hour

A nice up trend on the 4 hourly chart.

Making a higher low between X and Z point.

Then let's look at the hourly chart, start from the Z point.

AUD/USD Hourly

Starting from fractal no 1 to 7 is all a valid buy fractal and i miss all of those fractal and I miss that nice, smooth up move :(



With a 5 bar trailing stop (since there's ao divergence at the peak, use tight stop), close all position at 1.0730 and this is what u get:






1. 1.0530 (200 pips)
2. 1.0536 (194 pips)
3. 1.0600 (130 pips)
4. 1.0688 (42 pips)
5. 1.0693 (37 pips)
6. 1.0727 (3 pips)
7. 1.0774 (-44 pips)


a total of 562 pips profit if you take all the fractal buy signal one contract each.... you can avoid taking fractal no 7 though since there's an AO divergence to maximize the profit, but +562 pips is still amazing :)


Well better luck next time, watch out for this kind of pattern, let's zoom out the hourly chart, so we can see the zig zag pattern..

- Start from point 1, a choppy up trend, but still an uptrend

- then it correct to point 2, but didn't go lower than point 1,

- start to move up again, create fractal x, above the alligator line, a valid buy fractal. then start buying from there..

- Check higher time frame to look at the major trend.



That's it for this week, next week, check the saddle point at EUR/USD, AUD/USD and GBP/USD..

Elliot Wave Count Bill Williams's style

Found this video on you tube, this is an old one where Bill williams haven't invented the alligator and still using macd instead of the AO. But basically still the same, the AO is just a slight modification of the Macd. Now he uses the AO to count.

PART 1


PART 2

Weekly Trading Review (week 3)

EUR/GBP hourly

I posted about EUR/GBP that the trend is up, but there's 3 fractal outside the mouth, I remember Bill Williams mention it in his home study course, so i took it, fractal no 3 breakout, Sell at 0.8862 and close it at 0.8822, made 40 pips profit. Decided to close the position, since i still believe that the trend is up so i don't want to be greedy, but who knows the trend might change to bearish, let just see what happen next week :)

Market Update EUR/GBP

EUR/GBP Daily

Daily Trend: Sideways with a possible move up to its resistance at 0.8940


So let's trade the intraday (blue box area) is an up trend.

EUR/GBP 4 Hourly

4 hour chart trend is still up

No AO divergence yet, momentum is up

So I'm only interested at buying opportunity at the moment.






Trading Plan

EUR/GBP Hourly

Normal correction on the hourly chart, wait until the AO cross zero then buy when it breaks up fractal above the red line.

EUR/USD position update

EUR/USD Hourly

Close position from last week (week 1 april) at 1.4439, price close below red line.

Buy at 1.4312, +127 pips
Buy at 1.4403, +36 pips
Buy at 1.4423, +19 pips

Made a total profit of 182 pips.

Weekly Trading Review (week 1)

NZD/USD

NZD/USD hourly

Hmm.. Let see, didn't take fractal 1 breakout because it's too early and the alligator is still sleeping.

The price is in the target zone, should have waited until it breaks the down fractal, but did a bad trade, against the rule. Sell at 0.7679 near fractal no 2, then got stopped out when it break fractal no 2, a total loss of 19 pips.

Then I stop and reverse buy at 0.7699 (fractal no 2 breakout, got stopped out when price close below the red line at 0.7679, a total loss of 20 pips.

After that price go up again, I don't know what's in my head back then, I sold it again at 0.7693 near fractal no 4, again got stopped out at 0.7708 (fractal no 4 breakout), made 15 pips loss.

I stop and reverse again buy at 0.7708, price start to move up before it came back down again. Decide to cut it at 0.7691, call it a night, already lost my concentration, too tired, a total loss of 17 pips.

Lesson learned, wait for confirmation (break down fractal). This 4 trade add together, made a total loss of 71 pips.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD Hourly

Buy at 1.6340 (break fractal no 1), got stopped out when price close below the red line at 1.6301 (-39 pips).

Forgot about the BOE rate announcement back then, after it came out, price went wild.

Could've choosen to use the down fractal as my stop loss, and still be in the market, enjoying the up move, but there's a 77 pips risk if i use that, so i choose the red line instead. My plan is to limit losses between 20-30 pips, max 50 pips under certain circumstances.

Look at fractal no 2, nice saddle point, tight pattern, but I didn't see it and missed the up move.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY Hourly

a complex correction. I've traded this at the same time with my GBP trade (BOE rate announcement), i don't know if it got affected, but the price is quite messy though, should've not taken it even if there's no BOE rate announcement.

Sell at 85.07, then got stopped out at 85.36 (fractal 2 breakout), a loss of 29 pips.



EUR/JPY

EUR/JPY Hourly

My first time trading EUR/JPY, buy at fractal no 1 breakout 122.64, close it at 122.90. Made a 26 pips profit.








EUR/USD

EUR/USD Hourly

This is my best trade this week. Didn't take fractal no 1, learned my lesson from gbp trade, There was ECB rate announcement after BOE.

First buy at fractal no 2 breakout 1.4312, then keep adding on, buy fractal no 3 breakout at 1.4403 & fractal no 4 breakout at 1.4423. Haven't sold it yet, still hold. let's see what happen on monday.

EUR/USD 4H

Look at the 4 hour chart, a strong up trend, momentum keep increasing. When you look at a chart like this, never sell.








So this week I made a total loss of 113 pips, excluding EUR/USD trade, still open position. 113 pips, my biggest loss in a week. Hmm... need to read this review a couple of times, all over again to avoid such thing happen in the future.. :)

Monthly (March) Wrap up

Total profit of this month is 107 pips, slightly below from last month, hopefully it gets better next month..

There's no saddle point this month, rarely to find these days.

Found a new strategy to trade with, don't know bout the consistency, we'll see how it goes along the way, hopefully make some nice pips since there's not much a saddle point nowadays.. :)

Weekly Trading Review (week 5)

1st Trade

NZD/USD Hourly

Same pattern as usual, but failed this time. Sell at 7449 and got stopped out at 7525, a total loss of 26 pips..


2nd Trade

AUD/USD Hourly

Just like NZD/USD and my other 5 magic bullets pattern. The trend is up then correct to point x, start to go up again but only peak at poin Y (didn't break the last peak, just like an abc correction pattern) then it went down again and break fractal X, enter sell at 1.0225 but it failed. Decide to follow my instinct and cut my position  at 1.0446, a total loss of 21 pips.

Two bullish divergent bar (BDB) was formed back then, my gut feeling told me to get out, something's wrong, decide to ignore it but still watch carefully until it went up and pass the green line. Luckily it retrace back, gives me no second thought to get out the position before it close above the green line (bar Z)..


3rd Trade

EUR/USD Hourly

The trend is up (based on 4 hourly chart), price making higher low, sideways for a while then alligators mouth open, AO break it last peak, enter fractal breakout at 1.4148 and got stopped out at 1.4207 (BDB), a total profit of 59 pips.

I found that after a sideways market sideways or after the market correct for a while, look closely at the AO, if it change color from green to red to green again and near the last peak (most likely a wave 3), fractal above alligator, and the alligator mouth is open, you can try to buy..

This week made a total profit of 12 pips..