AUD/USD Trade (28 aug - 2 Sep)

AUD/USD Hourly

AUD/USD break the 1.6000 resistance and create a new fractal with a tight pattern, and also there's a balance line, enter buy at 1.0628..

My earlier plan was to use the down fractal at 1.0602, -27 pips risk, and moved it to the 2nd down fractal at 1.0608 which both not hit.. But my i just closed it at 1.0618, -10 pips..

I felt uneasy back then, and got a bit scared i guess lol. it's late at midnight, really sleepy and tired but i guess my fear controls me, the right thing to do is put my stop loss at 1.0607 and go to sleep, and I'd still be in the market with a nice profit, my mistake then.. This happened after I watched jack schwager Lol, something about ego and opinion, I'll post the video later...#Lesson Learned

I could've re-entered, there's a balance line and a fractal breakout, but it moves past midnight while i'm sleeping, can't complain about this one, i rarely see market moves at that time, so i'm fine with one..

Now i'm waiting for aud/usd to make a correction..

AUD/USD Trade (22 - 26 aug)

AUD/USD hourly

#1 Trade

Price move in a channel, a bullish divergent bar near support, it keeps making lower high, but the overall trend looking at the 4 hour chart is still bearish.

Enter buy at 1.0470 (one tick above bdb high) with stop loss at 1.0449 (-21 pips risk) and my target would be near the resistance.

But price moves not according to my plan, i got stopped out, - 21 pips

AUD/USD Hourly

#2 Trade

Then i stop and reverse, sell at 1.0499, but again i got stopped out at 1.0647, -18 pips

AUD/USD Hourly

Hmm.. 4 hour alligator was still sleeping back then, choopy market on the hourly, when it finally takes off, i missed it..

Review for next week

AUD/USD 4hour

AUD/USD Hourly

Price at its fibo 61.8 resistance, and a bearish divergent bar at the hourly chart, AO still looking strong,

I'm thinking of entering buy when it breaks BDB high, but AO still high, and the stop loss will be around 50-60 pips, too far for me.. Let see on monday, i'm hoping there's a saddle point first or wait for another fractal..

AUD/USD Trade (Week 15 - 19 Aug)

Overall Trend

AUD/USD 4 Hour

Clearly a down trend with some kind of a correction going in, i'm looking at fibo 50 - 61.8 as a resistance..

Entry

AUD/USD Hourly

Missed fractal no 1 and didn't take fractal 2..

#1. There are three fractals outside alligator mouth with tight pattern, i normally take it.
      Break fractal 3, buy at 1.0430, close at 1.0490 (right around 50 fibo resistance), + 60 pips..

Then it starts to correct, and formed a saddle point

#2. Break fractal 4, entry buy at 1.0489 and #3. Break fractal 5, buy at 1.0499,
      Then i got lucky, it hit my target point at 1.0600, +111 and +101 pips
   
      Otherwise my back up plan is to use the green line as my stop loss if it doesnt reach my target
      If I Got stopped out at 1.0529 (price close below the green line), +40 and +30 pips,
      hmm a big difference...

I guess it still hard for me to wants what the market wants hehe.. Hmm... I guess support and resistance really help, been using it for a while instead of waiting the green/red line.

Well i guess it all comes from our belief system and it's all an executive decision, nothing better than other, it all depends on our comfortable level..

      

AUD/USD Trade (Week 8-12 aug)

AUD/USD hourly

My sell stop got hit, break down fractal, sell at 1.0374..

UPDATE

AUD/USD Hourly

Got stopped out at 1.0376 (using wiseman 2, three consecutive ao green bar trailing stop), since there's a divergence, i tighten up my stop.

from floating + 62 profit into - 2 pips, hmm interesting..

UPDATE

AUD/USD Hourly

Hmm.. this is interesting, it keeps coming down and create a new AO peak, AUD if it's trending, just don't know when to stop.. Lol

If i use the red line, i would've still in the market or if i follow every down fractal, i would've made fortune... Lol.. I guess i dont have the mentality and i thought it's turning into wave 4, but this wave 3 is too strong..

I forgot about three fractal outside the alligator mouth with a tight pattern.. oh well let just wait for next opportunity..

AUD/USD Update (week 1-5 Aug)

AUD/USD Hourly

AUD moves not according to my plan, well that's the market, new incoming information coming in, which is the US debt plan. never argue with the market, the market is always right. Wants what the market wants..

Hmm, let see if i bought AUD yesterday, I have 3 option as my exit strategy

1. using the five previous bar, i'd still make a profit
2. using the green line, i'd also still make a profit (best choice)
3. using the red line, i'd have small losses

Bill said it's an executive decision, three of this exit strategy have its pros and cons.

Now i'm following the market down, break fractal (near the alligator, and it's open), Sell at 1,0962, let see how it goes..

UPDATE

AUD/USD Hourly

I'm out, hit my trailing stop at 1.0902, Total profit 60 pips

My other option here is using the green line stop, but right now i'm more comfortable using tighter stop which is the Bullish divergent bar..

UPDATE

AUD/USD Hourly

if i use the green line or red line, i would still be in the market, with a big profit (around 180 pips).. Oh well I didn't have the mentality back then.. Lol..

Hmm... and I notice that AUD have a beautiful smooth move if it's trending. Green or red line might be a better option for AUD, no divergence though. Ok noted!

UPDATE

AUD/USD Hourly

Break down fractal, sell again at 1.0708.. hmm.. a bit risky.. probably it's a wave 5 of 3 or still wave 4 of 3.. let see..

UPDATE

AUD/USD Hourly

Close my previous position at 1.0754 (price close above green line) - 46 pips

re-enter sell when it breaks fractal 1 at 1.0679, just closed at 1.0605 (one tick above bullish divergent bar) + 74 pips

UPDATE

AUD/USD Hourly

Using the green line still work as a charm.. Lol.. Hmm.. I thought there's a divergence back then, but turns out, the AO create a new peak... If we follow every signal, and use the green or red line, i don't know how much pips we could make, it's a jackpot indeed.. Sadly i don't have the mentality to use the green or red line Lol.. Oh well maybe next time..

UPDATE

AUD/USD Hourly

On friday i took fractal x breakout, sell at 1.0427 and close the position at 1,0489 (price close above the red line) - 62 pips.

hmm this trade is a bit risky, looking at the previous down move. i'm trying to see what happen if i took all the down fractal..

This week profit + 26 pips..

AUD/USD Trading Plan

AUD/USD Hourly

Looking to buy with a possible target 1.130 (fibo expansion 61.8 target zone)

1.1016 can be a possible buy fractal or we can wait for a saddle point

Weekly Trading Review (week 1)

AUD/USD Hourly

Australian dollar break new high.. Still an uptrend, one thing i learned from my experience is never ever trade against the trend for this currency, when there's a strong trend, better follow it, and no such thing as too high, just follow the signal (fractal, alligator, AO), wants what the market wants...

Missed last week up trend, but didn't miss this second change.. Same pattern as last week.. Price went up, then it correct for a while, then it continue to moves up (break up fractal above red line)..

Start with fractal no 1, didn't take it, too risky for me, but if you're aggressive you can take it..
I took fractal no 2 breakout at 1,0767, fractal no 3 at 1.0792 and got stopped out at 1.0804 (break down fractal), made a total profit of 49 pips..

Then the market correct not for long until it continue to go up and break fractal no 4 at 1.0832 and fractal no 5 at 1.0882. I got stopped out at 1.0907 (break down fractal), made a total profit of 100 pips..

Didn't take fractal no 6 and 7, I thought i let it correct for a while since the AO already peak (wave 3) and also there's a divergence. I expect a wave 4 but it continue to go up.. oh well i might miss the next up trend, for now i'll just wait and see for next opportunity..

Let's look at the pattern below, just follow the wave...

AUD/USD Hourly

Weekly Trading Review (week 5)

Been busy this week, can't watch the market, so I miss a couple of good trade :(

Let's review Aud/Usd which again made a new high 1.0774 and no sign of weakening, still goin strong, I guess 1.1000 is on the way.

AUD/USD 4 Hour

A nice up trend on the 4 hourly chart.

Making a higher low between X and Z point.

Then let's look at the hourly chart, start from the Z point.

AUD/USD Hourly

Starting from fractal no 1 to 7 is all a valid buy fractal and i miss all of those fractal and I miss that nice, smooth up move :(



With a 5 bar trailing stop (since there's ao divergence at the peak, use tight stop), close all position at 1.0730 and this is what u get:






1. 1.0530 (200 pips)
2. 1.0536 (194 pips)
3. 1.0600 (130 pips)
4. 1.0688 (42 pips)
5. 1.0693 (37 pips)
6. 1.0727 (3 pips)
7. 1.0774 (-44 pips)


a total of 562 pips profit if you take all the fractal buy signal one contract each.... you can avoid taking fractal no 7 though since there's an AO divergence to maximize the profit, but +562 pips is still amazing :)


Well better luck next time, watch out for this kind of pattern, let's zoom out the hourly chart, so we can see the zig zag pattern..

- Start from point 1, a choppy up trend, but still an uptrend

- then it correct to point 2, but didn't go lower than point 1,

- start to move up again, create fractal x, above the alligator line, a valid buy fractal. then start buying from there..

- Check higher time frame to look at the major trend.



That's it for this week, next week, check the saddle point at EUR/USD, AUD/USD and GBP/USD..

Weekly Trading Review (week 5)

1st Trade

NZD/USD Hourly

Same pattern as usual, but failed this time. Sell at 7449 and got stopped out at 7525, a total loss of 26 pips..


2nd Trade

AUD/USD Hourly

Just like NZD/USD and my other 5 magic bullets pattern. The trend is up then correct to point x, start to go up again but only peak at poin Y (didn't break the last peak, just like an abc correction pattern) then it went down again and break fractal X, enter sell at 1.0225 but it failed. Decide to follow my instinct and cut my position  at 1.0446, a total loss of 21 pips.

Two bullish divergent bar (BDB) was formed back then, my gut feeling told me to get out, something's wrong, decide to ignore it but still watch carefully until it went up and pass the green line. Luckily it retrace back, gives me no second thought to get out the position before it close above the green line (bar Z)..


3rd Trade

EUR/USD Hourly

The trend is up (based on 4 hourly chart), price making higher low, sideways for a while then alligators mouth open, AO break it last peak, enter fractal breakout at 1.4148 and got stopped out at 1.4207 (BDB), a total profit of 59 pips.

I found that after a sideways market sideways or after the market correct for a while, look closely at the AO, if it change color from green to red to green again and near the last peak (most likely a wave 3), fractal above alligator, and the alligator mouth is open, you can try to buy..

This week made a total profit of 12 pips..

AUD/USD Trading Plan

4 Hour Chart

a possible end of a trend...

Let's wait for the price to pullback (wave b up) then enter hopefully wave c down... :)

AUD/USD week 1

15 min Chart
Saddle point, Break up fractal

Buy at 1.0209







Close Position

Close at 1.0178, a total loss of 31 pips










2nd Trade

There's Bullish Divergent Bar between 50 - 61.8 Fibo, if my wave count correct, a possible end of wave 4..

Let's give it a try, buy at 1.0191






Close Position and 3rd Trade

Hit my stop loss at 1.0173, total loss of 18 pips..

Stop and reverse, Sell at 1.0174








Close Position 

Hit my stop loss at 1.0195, and then it went up, just nice! a total loss of 21 pips... :(