Tuesday, 30 August 2011

GBP/USD Trade (29 Aug - 2 Aug)

GBP/USD 30 min

Saddle point, first break fractal no 1, buy at 1.6418, got stopped out at 1.6394, -24 pips loss

Then stop and reverse, sell at 1.6394, got out at 1.6312, +82 pips profit... From 117 pips floating profit then rebound more than 30 pips, so i just closed it, guess it hard to wants what the market wants.. lol

Update
GBP/USD 30 min

Price keeps coming down, hmm.. if I use my trailing stop I'd be still in the market, no divergence, should've waited a bit longer and trail the stop, but didn't have the guts back then, can't really complain.. oh well until next opportunity..

AUD/USD Trade (28 aug - 2 Sep)

AUD/USD Hourly

AUD/USD break the 1.6000 resistance and create a new fractal with a tight pattern, and also there's a balance line, enter buy at 1.0628..

My earlier plan was to use the down fractal at 1.0602, -27 pips risk, and moved it to the 2nd down fractal at 1.0608 which both not hit.. But my i just closed it at 1.0618, -10 pips..

I felt uneasy back then, and got a bit scared i guess lol. it's late at midnight, really sleepy and tired but i guess my fear controls me, the right thing to do is put my stop loss at 1.0607 and go to sleep, and I'd still be in the market with a nice profit, my mistake then.. This happened after I watched jack schwager Lol, something about ego and opinion, I'll post the video later...#Lesson Learned

I could've re-entered, there's a balance line and a fractal breakout, but it moves past midnight while i'm sleeping, can't complain about this one, i rarely see market moves at that time, so i'm fine with one..

Now i'm waiting for aud/usd to make a correction..

Saturday, 27 August 2011

GBP/USD Trade (22 - 26 Aug)

GBP/USD 30 min

Missed a couple of good trade...

#1 trade,
price consolidate for a while then it breaks fractal down, sell at 1.6360, but i got stopped out at 1.6333 (price close above the alligator line), -27 pips

if i used the bearish divergent bar (pin bar) high, i'd still be in the market, but my stop loss rules is 30 pips max, trying to stick to the rules..

GBP/USD 30 min

#2 trade
Then i re-enter, break down fractal again, sell at 1.6345.. Got out at 1.6280, there's a divergence, AO start increasing, i just took it, gut feeling, +65 pips

GBP/USD 30 min
This one also a profitable trade but again i missed it..

Price start to retrace to its resistance and create a bearish divergent bar, if you're aggressive, sell when it breaks the bdb low, the stop would be just one above its high, for this one it's a small risk..

Otherwise we can wait until it breaks the fractal below alligator line, and we can use the bdb high as our exit.

This is a 80-100 pips profit potential, and i missed it :(

oh well, :) until next opportunities..

if you're aggressive, there's a triple divergence and a bullish divergent bar, if we took it, it's profitable as well..

AUD/USD Trade (22 - 26 aug)

AUD/USD hourly

#1 Trade

Price move in a channel, a bullish divergent bar near support, it keeps making lower high, but the overall trend looking at the 4 hour chart is still bearish.

Enter buy at 1.0470 (one tick above bdb high) with stop loss at 1.0449 (-21 pips risk) and my target would be near the resistance.

But price moves not according to my plan, i got stopped out, - 21 pips

AUD/USD Hourly

#2 Trade

Then i stop and reverse, sell at 1.0499, but again i got stopped out at 1.0647, -18 pips


AUD/USD Hourly

Hmm.. 4 hour alligator was still sleeping back then, choopy market on the hourly, when it finally takes off, i missed it..

Review for next week
AUD/USD 4hour
AUD/USD Hourly

Price at its fibo 61.8 resistance, and a bearish divergent bar at the hourly chart, AO still looking strong,

I'm thinking of entering buy when it breaks BDB high, but AO still high, and the stop loss will be around 50-60 pips, too far for me.. Let see on monday, i'm hoping there's a saddle point first or wait for another fractal..

Friday, 19 August 2011

GBP/USD Trade (Week 15 - 19)

GBP/USD Hourly

Saddle point, break up fractal, buy at 1.6528...

Hmm... this is the hardest part, should i just close it for + 70 pips? or should I use the green line?

Update
GBP/USD 30 min

Close at 1.6565 (one tick below big candle low), +37 pips from +80 pips, hmm...

Thursday, 18 August 2011

AUD/USD Trade (Week 15 - 19 Aug)

Overall Trend
AUD/USD 4 Hour

Clearly a down trend with some kind of a correction going in, i'm looking at fibo 50 - 61.8 as a resistance..

Entry
AUD/USD Hourly

Missed fractal no 1 and didn't take fractal 2..

#1. There are three fractals outside alligator mouth with tight pattern, i normally take it.
      Break fractal 3, buy at 1.0430, close at 1.0490 (right around 50 fibo resistance), + 60 pips..

Then it starts to correct, and formed a saddle point

#2. Break fractal 4, entry buy at 1.0489 and #3. Break fractal 5, buy at 1.0499,
      Then i got lucky, it hit my target point at 1.0600, +111 and +101 pips
   
      Otherwise my back up plan is to use the green line as my stop loss if it doesnt reach my target
      If I Got stopped out at 1.0529 (price close below the green line), +40 and +30 pips,
      hmm a big difference...

I guess it still hard for me to wants what the market wants hehe.. Hmm... I guess support and resistance really help, been using it for a while instead of waiting the green/red line.

Well i guess it all comes from our belief system and it's all an executive decision, nothing better than other, it all depends on our comfortable level..

      


EUR/USD trade (week 14 - 19 aug)

Overall Trend
EUR/USD 4 Hour

Entry

EUR/USD Hourly

Starts with a saddle point,

#1. Break fractal 1, sell at 1.4350, got stopped out at 1.4390, -40 pips (big bullish divergent bar)
     
      4 hourly - price above alligator, and it's opening up, hmm.. should i just take long position then,
      following the trend? Well there's a lower high and it's near the resitance line i guess nothing better could've
      been done. I'm happy with my decision..

#2. Break fractal 2, buy at 1.4421, got stopped out 1.4441, +20 pips (one tick below big candle low)

      20 pips away from the resistance line and 10 pips away from my target point.. hmm.. oh well at least i still
      can save a lil bit of my profit : )

Wednesday, 10 August 2011

EUR/USD trade (week 8 - 12 aug)

EUR/USD Hourly

Look at the overall trend, definitely sideway, i trade 15 min chart using this hourly chart as my map. Let's look at the 15 min chart..

EUR/USD 15 min

Saddle point

Break fractal 1, sell at 1.4328, out at 1.4332 (bdb), - 4 pips

Stop and reverse at 1.4332, buy one tick above bdb high (2)

Break fractal 3, add buy at 1.4363, and break fractal 4 add buy at 1.4387

it's near the resistance line, so i just close it all at 1.4390, + 58, + 27 and + 3 pips, total +88 pips

Then I turn off my pc, and missed out fractal 5 breakout, T_T, it's still goin down while im writing this, double top then it moves down and break fractal, ohh well until next opportunity...

Monday, 8 August 2011

AUD/USD Trade (Week 8-12 aug)

AUD/USD hourly

My sell stop got hit, break down fractal, sell at 1.0374..

UPDATE
AUD/USD Hourly


Got stopped out at 1.0376 (using wiseman 2, three consecutive ao green bar trailing stop), since there's a divergence, i tighten up my stop.

from floating + 62 profit into - 2 pips, hmm interesting..

UPDATE
AUD/USD Hourly


Hmm.. this is interesting, it keeps coming down and create a new AO peak, AUD if it's trending, just don't know when to stop.. Lol

If i use the red line, i would've still in the market or if i follow every down fractal, i would've made fortune... Lol.. I guess i dont have the mentality and i thought it's turning into wave 4, but this wave 3 is too strong..

I forgot about three fractal outside the alligator mouth with a tight pattern.. oh well let just wait for next opportunity..

Friday, 5 August 2011

Missed EUR/USD trade (Week 1-5 aug)

EUR/USD Hourly

I missed this trade, but let's just analyze this one..

Made a lower high then create a fractal below and near the alligator line, AO also near zero..
Then it break the down fractal, sell at 1.4206

Looking at the volatility, I'd probably got stopped out at 1.4175 (bullish divergent bar) + 31 pips or the green line at 1.4129, + 77 pips

Tuesday, 2 August 2011

AUD/USD Update (week 1-5 Aug)

AUD/USD Hourly

AUD moves not according to my plan, well that's the market, new incoming information coming in, which is the US debt plan. never argue with the market, the market is always right. Wants what the market wants..

Hmm, let see if i bought AUD yesterday, I have 3 option as my exit strategy

1. using the five previous bar, i'd still make a profit
2. using the green line, i'd also still make a profit (best choice)
3. using the red line, i'd have small losses

Bill said it's an executive decision, three of this exit strategy have its pros and cons.

Now i'm following the market down, break fractal (near the alligator, and it's open), Sell at 1,0962, let see how it goes..

UPDATE
AUD/USD Hourly

I'm out, hit my trailing stop at 1.0902, Total profit 60 pips

My other option here is using the green line stop, but right now i'm more comfortable using tighter stop which is the Bullish divergent bar..

UPDATE
AUD/USD Hourly

if i use the green line or red line, i would still be in the market, with a big profit (around 180 pips).. Oh well I didn't have the mentality back then.. Lol..

Hmm... and I notice that AUD have a beautiful smooth move if it's trending. Green or red line might be a better option for AUD, no divergence though. Ok noted!

UPDATE
AUD/USD Hourly


Break down fractal, sell again at 1.0708.. hmm.. a bit risky.. probably it's a wave 5 of 3 or still wave 4 of 3.. let see..

UPDATE
AUD/USD Hourly


Close my previous position at 1.0754 (price close above green line) - 46 pips

re-enter sell when it breaks fractal 1 at 1.0679, just closed at 1.0605 (one tick above bullish divergent bar) + 74 pips

UPDATE
AUD/USD Hourly

Using the green line still work as a charm.. Lol.. Hmm.. I thought there's a divergence back then, but turns out, the AO create a new peak... If we follow every signal, and use the green or red line, i don't know how much pips we could make, it's a jackpot indeed.. Sadly i don't have the mentality to use the green or red line Lol.. Oh well maybe next time..

UPDATE
AUD/USD Hourly

On friday i took fractal x breakout, sell at 1.0427 and close the position at 1,0489 (price close above the red line) - 62 pips.

hmm this trade is a bit risky, looking at the previous down move. i'm trying to see what happen if i took all the down fractal..

This week profit + 26 pips..